When by-elections don’t matter

The UK Labour Party has delivered a spectacular victory in the Glasgow North East by-election by securing just under 60% of the vote. The Scottish National Party came in second with 20% of the vote, while the Conservatives trailed in third place on 5% (with the BNP dangerously close in 4th).

But was this victory really spectacular? Well the majority of the electorate were not really up to much with turnout a mere 33%. And in 2005 the Conservatives came in 5th place with about 4.5% of the vote, while the Liberal Democrats didn’t even run a candidate!

The latest Populus poll shows the Conservatives with a 10% lead over the Labour Party. The percentages are Conservatives 39, Laboour 29, Liberal Democrats 18. Compare that with the results from the by-election in Glasgow last night: Labour 60, Conservatives 5, Liberal Democrats 2. Something doesn’t add up here.

It’s pretty easy to figure out what’s going on. The Labour Party managed to secure victory in a fairly safe seat. So I think that we can safely dismiss Willie Bain’s claim that the result was also a rejection of David Cameron – besides the constituency of Glasgow North East in any case. But then I don’t think Mr Cameron’s expectations for his party in this constituency were very high. Any Labour Party supporter who thinks this victory will provide the momentum required to launch an offensive on the Conservatives poll lead is delusional – this means you Jim Murphy.

Likely effect of this by-election on the general election result – Nada!